tag:dreamwidth.org,2011-04-21:870654 squirrelitude squirrelitude 2021-08-22T00:46:33Z tag:dreamwidth.org,2011-04-21:870654:116584 2021-08-22T00:46:33Z 2021-08-22T00:46:33Z public 0 There's been some reporting recently of vaccines not protecting against severe infection as well as expected, based on looking at the number of hospitalized people who are vaccinated vs not. "60% of people with severe COVID-19 in the hospital had been vaccinated!" Here's an article explaining why this analysis is complete junk:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated">https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated</a><br /><br />If you're familiar with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox">Simpson's paradox</a>, it's another case of that. TL;DR: Vaccination status is highly correlated with age, and if you actually slice up the cases by age, you see that efficacy against severe disease is 80–100%, depending on age. And yes, this is in the context of the Delta variant (or other current strains).<br /><br />(But also see the article for some additional confounding factors.)<br /><br /><img src="https://www.dreamwidth.org/tools/commentcount?user=squirrelitude&ditemid=116584" width="30" height="12" alt="comment count unavailable" style="vertical-align: middle;"/> comments